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Saturday, April 14, 2018

04-14-18 TOR vs CLE

Line Score - Final


1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 R H E
TOR 0 0 0 4 0 0 1 0 3 8 7 0
CLE 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 12 2

Box Score

CLE
AB R H RBI BB SO BA
TOR
AB R H RBI BB SO BA
SS Lindor 5 2 3 1 0 1 .241
DH Granderson 3 0 0 0 0 1 .324
2B Kipnis 5 0 1 1 0 1 .164
DH Pearce 2 2 1 2 0 0 .233
3B Ramírez, J 4 1 1 0 1 2 .160
LF Hernández, T 5 0 2 2 0 1 .400
1B Alonso 4 0 1 1 0 2 .191
1B Smoak 4 1 0 0 1 3 .288
DH Encarnacion 4 0 1 0 0 1 .146
3B Solarte 4 1 0 0 1 0 .286
RF Naquin, T 4 0 2 1 0 0 .280
C Martin, R 4 0 0 0 0 1 .152
C Gomes 3 0 1 0 1 2 .194
CF Pillar 4 1 2 1 0 1 .308
CF Zimmer 4 0 1 0 0 1 .250
SS Díaz 4 2 2 3 0 0 .237
LF Davis, R 4 1 1 0 0 1 .240
RF Grichuk 3 0 0 0 1 2 .071
CLE IP H R ER BB SO P-S ERA
TOR IP H R ER BB SO P-S ERA
Clevinger 4.0 3 4 4 2 5 82-48 2.70
Stroman 5.0 9 4 4 2 5 99-62 7.98
Otero 2.0 0 0 0 0 2 27-18 6.00
Barnes, D 1.0 2 0 0 0 2 23-16 1.23
McAllister 0.1 0 1 0 1 0 9-4 6.75
Clippard 1.0 0 0 0 0 1 10-7 2.35
Miller 0.2 1 0 0 0 1 13-10 0.00
Tepera 1.0 1 0 0 0 1 9-6 2.25
Belisle 1.1 3 3 3 0 1 33-21 5.06
Osuna 1.0 0 0 0 0 2 13-10 0.00
Olson 0.2 0 0 0 0 1 6-4 5.40













The Blue Jays were down 4-0, and then scored eight unanswered runs. Aprobado!

No recap tonight. Just some thoughts on Hernandez.

He has shown tremendous upside since coming to the Jays. As you know, he had eight home runs in fewer than 100 plate appearances last year, and posted a wRC+ of 132. He looked great again in spring training this year. Tonight, he hit two doubles in his debut, and picked up a couple of RBIs. It’s been a terrific career with the Blue Jays so far.

But as exciting as he’s been, I think we should still pump the brakes a little. Over the course of his minor league career, Hernandez always struggled with strikeouts. That continued last September, when he struck out 38% of the time. He also showed decent power in the minors, but certainly nothing compared to a .341 ISO. The most homers he ever hit in a season was 17, once in 455 plate appearances, and again in 514. Remember, he hit eight last year in 95.

What does that mean? For me, it means that the September sample shouldn’t carry too much weight. It was such a drastic departure from his career norm, that I find it hard to believe that he will sustain it. Obviously he did tonight, but based on the evidence before us, it’s not likely to continue.
Moreover, he has still shown holes in his game. Do you know who he is very similar to? Randal Grichuk, a player with ~1,500 plate appearances under his belt. The key difference is that Grichuk has shown exceptional power consistently at the MLB level, along with the strikeouts. Grichuk is also a slightly better defender, but that’s not as important to this discussion.

All of this to say that, while Grichuk has struggled so far and Hernandez has looked excellent, both have done so in small samples, and have should be expected to regress in opposite directions. Based on what we’ve seen over their careers, Grichuk should level out to be a slightly above-average player, and Hernandez… we don’t know. Which is why the Jays have stuck with Grichuk, and will continue to moving forward.

Now, having said all of that, this isn’t meant to be a put-down on Hernandez. I don’t dislike him, or “hate him,” as I’ve been accused of. I just think that there are enough red flags throughout his career, and not enough of a positive sample size as yet, for the Jays to hitch their wagon to him. You know what would make the most sense to me? If the Jays could somehow get rid of Morales. That way, they could keep Hernandez in LF, while platooning Granderson and Pearce at DH. Based on the 40-man, that seems to be the optimal lineup at this point.

Hernandez has shown terrific flashes so far in his career. I just want to see him do it for a little longer before I get too excited.

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